dfsforge / NBA forecasts

NBA stat forecasts

Sports: NFL · MLB · NBA · WNBA

Point estimates hide the shape. Every forecast below is a full outcome distribution - median, range, and the probability of clearing a line - learned from game logs and validated on a held-out season.

Plain English: instead of one guess per player, we publish the whole spread of likely outcomes - like a weather forecast that says "high of 75, probably between 68 and 82" instead of just "75". Click a stat below to expand it, then click a player for their full forecast page.

PointsFITTED

Scoring per game - the headline basketball number.

Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 75%.

Player	Pos	Team	Avg/gm	80% range
Luka Doncic	G	LAL	33	21-44
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	G	OKC	30	19-41
Jaylen Brown	G	BOS	27	16-38
Anthony Edwards	G	MIN	27	16-38
Kawhi Leonard	F	LAC	27	17-37
Giannis Antetokounmpo	F	MIL	27	17-37
Tyrese Maxey	G	PHI	27	15-38
Nikola Jokic	C	DEN	27	16-37
Donovan Mitchell	G	CLE	26	15-38
Joel Embiid	C	PHI	26	16-36
Lauri Markkanen	F	UTAH	26	16-36
Stephen Curry	G	GS	26	14-37
Jalen Brunson	G	NY	26	14-37
Kevin Durant	F	HOU	25	16-35
Devin Booker	G	PHX	25	13-36
Jamal Murray	G	DEN	25	13-36
Victor Wembanyama	F	SA	24	14-34
Cade Cunningham	G	DET	24	13-35
Michael Porter Jr.	F	BKN	24	14-34
Deni Avdija	F	POR	23	14-34
Pascal Siakam	F	IND	23	14-34
Keyonte George	G	UTAH	23	12-34
Austin Reaves	G	LAL	23	11-34
Paolo Banchero	F	ORL	22	13-32
Jayson Tatum	F	BOS	22	13-32

ReboundsFITTED

Boards per game - bigs bank these nightly.

Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 82%.

Player	Pos	Team	Avg/gm	80% range
Nikola Jokic	C	DEN	12.4	7.1-17.7
Karl-Anthony Towns	C	NY	11.3	6.0-16.6
Donovan Clingan	C	POR	11.2	5.9-16.5
Zach Edey	C	MEM	11.1	5.7-16.4
Victor Wembanyama	F	SA	11.0	6.8-15.5
Rudy Gobert	C	MIN	11.0	5.6-16.3
Domantas Sabonis	F	SAC	10.8	6.5-15.3
Walker Kessler	C	UTAH	10.7	5.3-15.9
Julian Reese	F	WSH	10.5	6.3-15.0
Anthony Davis	F	DAL	10.3	6.0-14.7
Ivica Zubac	C	IND	10.3	4.9-15.6
Jayson Tatum	F	BOS	10.2	5.9-14.6
Jusuf Nurkic	C	UTAH	10.1	4.8-15.4
Jalen Duren	C	DET	9.9	5.1-14.8
Jalen Johnson	F	ATL	9.7	5.4-14.2
Giannis Antetokounmpo	F	MIL	9.7	5.4-14.1
Bam Adebayo	C	MIA	9.7	4.9-14.6
Kel'el Ware	C	MIA	9.4	4.6-14.3
Isaiah Hartenstein	C	OKC	9.0	4.1-13.8
Alperen Sengun	C	HOU	8.8	4.0-13.7
Evan Mobley	C	CLE	8.7	3.9-13.5
Moussa Diabate	F	CHA	8.6	4.3-13.0
Chet Holmgren	C	OKC	8.6	3.7-13.4
Steven Adams	C	HOU	8.5	3.7-13.4
Andersson Garcia	G	UTAH	8.4	4.8-12.0

AssistsFITTED

Playmaking per game - guards' bread and butter.

Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 77%.

Player	Pos	Team	Avg/gm	80% range
Nikola Jokic	C	DEN	10.2	6.9-14.0
Cade Cunningham	G	DET	9.2	5.5-13.2
Josh Giddey	G	CHI	8.9	5.2-12.9
Luka Doncic	G	LAL	8.1	4.4-12.1
Trae Young	G	WSH	8.1	4.4-12.1
Ja Morant	G	MEM	8.1	4.3-12.1
Andrew Nembhard	G	IND	7.5	3.8-11.5
James Harden	G	CLE	7.5	3.7-11.5
Jalen Johnson	F	ATL	7.3	4.0-10.8
Isaiah Collier	G	UTAH	7.2	3.4-11.2
Stephon Castle	G	SA	7.1	3.3-11.1
Kevin Porter Jr.	G	MIL	7.1	3.3-11.1
LeBron James	F	LAL	7.1	3.8-10.6
LaMelo Ball	G	CHA	7.0	3.3-11.0
Jamal Murray	G	DEN	6.8	3.0-10.8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	G	OKC	6.8	3.0-10.8
Darius Garland	G	LAC	6.7	3.0-10.7
Russell Westbrook	G	SAC	6.7	2.9-10.7
Jalen Brunson	G	NY	6.4	2.7-10.4
Deni Avdija	F	POR	6.4	3.1-9.9
Dejounte Murray	G	NO	6.4	2.6-10.4
Davion Mitchell	G	MIA	6.3	2.5-10.3
Tyrese Maxey	G	PHI	6.2	2.5-10.2
Jrue Holiday	G	POR	6.1	2.4-10.1
Alperen Sengun	C	HOU	6.1	2.8-9.9

Three-PointersFITTED

Made threes per game - volume shooters swing wildly night to night.

Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 80%.

Player	Pos	Team	Avg/gm	80% range
Stephen Curry	G	GS	4.3	1.9-6.8
Luka Doncic	G	LAL	3.9	1.5-6.4
LaMelo Ball	G	CHA	3.8	1.3-6.2
Michael Porter Jr.	F	BKN	3.4	1.3-5.4
Kon Knueppel	G	CHA	3.2	0.8-5.7
Trey Murphy III	F	NO	3.2	1.1-5.2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	G	ATL	3.2	0.7-5.6
Jamal Murray	G	DEN	3.1	0.6-5.5
Anthony Edwards	G	MIN	3.1	0.6-5.5
Brandon Miller	F	CHA	3.1	1.0-5.1
Donovan Mitchell	G	CLE	3.0	0.6-5.5
Grayson Allen	G	PHX	3.0	0.6-5.5
Jayson Tatum	F	BOS	3.0	0.9-5.0
AJ Green	G	MIL	3.0	0.5-5.4
Tyrese Maxey	G	PHI	2.9	0.5-5.4
Donte DiVincenzo	G	MIN	2.9	0.4-5.3
Klay Thompson	G	DAL	2.9	0.4-5.3
Duncan Robinson	F	DET	2.9	0.8-4.9
Paul George	F	PHI	2.8	0.8-4.9
Collin Gillespie	G	PHX	2.8	0.3-5.2
James Harden	G	CLE	2.8	0.3-5.2
Reed Sheppard	G	HOU	2.8	0.3-5.2
Sam Merrill	G	CLE	2.7	0.3-5.2
Darius Garland	G	LAC	2.7	0.2-5.2
Anfernee Simons	G	CHI	2.7	0.2-5.1

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts