dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Isaiah Hartenstein rebounds

Isaiah Hartenstein: reboundsFITTED MODEL

C · OKC · NBA · baseline 9.0/game (2026, 65 games)
8.9
Median
4.1-13.8
80% range
6.2-11.4
50% range
15.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4.18.913.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
4.0+91%
6.0+76%
8.0+58%
10.0+37%
12.0+20%
14.0+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Isaiah Hartenstein player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts