dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Luka Doncic three-pointers

Luka Doncic: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

G · LAL · NBA · baseline 3.9/game (2026, 67 games)
3.7
Median
1.5-6.4
80% range
2.6-5.1
50% range
7.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.53.76.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+97%
2.0+84%
3.0+67%
4.0+45%
5.0+27%
6.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9454 G three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 80.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Luka Doncic player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts