dfsforge / WNBA forecasts

WNBA stat forecasts

Sports: NFL · MLB · NBA · WNBA

Point estimates hide the shape. Every forecast below is a full outcome distribution - median, range, and the probability of clearing a line - learned from game logs and validated on a held-out season.

Plain English: instead of one guess per player, we publish the whole spread of likely outcomes - like a weather forecast that says "high of 75, probably between 68 and 82" instead of just "75". Click a stat below to expand it, then click a player for their full forecast page.

PointsFITTED

Scoring per game - the headline basketball number.

Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 82%.

Player	Pos	Team	Avg/gm	80% range
A'ja Wilson	C	LV	25	16-35
Kelsey Plum	G	LA	23	14-33
Kelsey Mitchell	G	IND	21	12-31
Marina Mabrey	G	TOR	21	12-31
Caitlin Clark	G	IND	21	11-30
Kahleah Copper	G	PHX	21	11-30
Paige Bueckers	G	DAL	20	10-29
Brittney Sykes	G	TOR	19	10-29
Breanna Stewart	F	NY	19	9-28
Olivia Miles	G	MIN	18	9-28
Rhyne Howard	G	ATL	18	9-28
Rickea Jackson	F	CHI	18	9-28
Sonia Citron	G	WSH	18	9-28
Allisha Gray	G	ATL	18	8-27
Jackie Young	G	LV	17	8-27
Natasha Howard	F	MIN	17	9-25
Dominique Malonga	C	SEA	16	8-25
Aliyah Boston	C	IND	16	8-25
Nneka Ogwumike	F	LA	16	8-24
Gabby Williams	F	GS	16	8-24
Natisha Hiedeman	G	SEA	15	7-25
Kiki Iriafen	F	WSH	15	7-23
Courtney Williams	G	MIN	15	7-24
Carla Leite	G	POR	15	6-24
Jonquel Jones	C	NY	15	7-23

ReboundsFITTED

Boards per game - bigs bank these nightly.

Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 83%.

Player	Pos	Team	Avg/gm	80% range
Angel Reese	F	ATL	11.3	7.0-15.8
Jessica Shepard	F	DAL	11.0	6.6-15.4
Aneesah Morrow	F	CON	9.3	4.9-13.8
Shakira Austin	C	WSH	9.2	4.5-14.5
A'ja Wilson	C	LV	9.2	4.4-14.5
Kiki Iriafen	F	WSH	8.9	4.6-13.4
Kamilla Cardoso	C	CHI	8.6	3.9-13.9
Jonquel Jones	C	NY	8.5	3.8-13.9
Breanna Stewart	F	NY	8.5	4.2-13.0
Natasha Mack	F	PHX	8.3	3.9-12.8
Nneka Ogwumike	F	LA	8.3	3.9-12.8
Aliyah Boston	C	IND	8.2	3.7-12.2
Natasha Howard	F	MIN	7.8	3.7-12.2
Dearica Hamby	F	LA	7.7	3.5-12.0
Dominique Malonga	C	SEA	7.5	3.0-11.5
Alyssa Thomas	F	PHX	6.9	2.8-11.2
Azura Stevens	F	CHI	6.3	2.1-10.6
NaLyssa Smith	F	LV	6.1	2.0-10.5
Isabelle Harrison	F	TOR	6.1	2.0-10.5
Nia Coffey	F	MIN	6.0	2.1-9.9
Flau'jae Johnson	G	SEA	5.3	2.3-8.6
Brittney Griner	C	CON	5.3	1.7-9.6
Courtney Williams	G	MIN	5.3	2.3-8.5
Olivia Nelson-Ododa	C	CON	5.2	1.6-9.5
Kayla Thornton	F	GS	5.2	1.4-9.1

AssistsFITTED

Playmaking per game - guards' bread and butter.

Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 80%.

Player	Pos	Team	Avg/gm	80% range
Alyssa Thomas	F	PHX	8.4	5.1-12.0
Caitlin Clark	G	IND	7.9	4.8-11.5
Chelsea Gray	G	LV	7.3	4.1-10.8
Jordin Canada	G	ATL	6.7	3.6-10.2
Jackie Young	G	LV	6.6	3.5-10.2
Kelsey Plum	G	LA	6.2	3.1-9.8
Paige Bueckers	G	DAL	6.2	3.0-9.7
Carla Leite	G	POR	5.6	2.4-9.1
Olivia Miles	G	MIN	5.5	2.4-9.1
Veronica Burton	G	GS	5.3	2.2-8.8
Jessica Shepard	F	DAL	5.0	1.7-8.6
Skylar Diggins	G	CHI	4.9	2.0-8.1
Julie Allemand	G	TOR	4.9	1.9-8.1
Julie Vanloo	G	NY	4.8	1.9-8.0
Leila Lacan	G	CON	4.5	1.6-7.8
Erica Wheeler	G	LA	4.5	1.6-7.7
Natisha Hiedeman	G	SEA	4.5	1.6-7.7
Courtney Williams	G	MIN	4.2	1.2-7.4
Natasha Cloud	G	CHI	4.1	1.1-7.3
Jade Melbourne	G	SEA	3.9	0.9-7.1
Pauline Astier	G	NY	3.8	0.9-7.0
Jordan Harrison	G	POR	3.8	1.3-6.5
Georgia Amoore	G	WSH	3.7	1.3-6.5
Marina Mabrey	G	TOR	3.6	1.2-6.4
Sonia Citron	G	WSH	3.5	1.1-6.3

Three-PointersFITTED

Made threes per game - volume shooters swing wildly night to night.

Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 80%.

Player	Pos	Team	Avg/gm	80% range
Marina Mabrey	G	TOR	3.6	1.3-6.1
Rhyne Howard	G	ATL	3.1	0.9-5.7
Caitlin Clark	G	IND	2.6	0.3-5.1
Kelsey Plum	G	LA	2.5	0.3-5.1
Kelsey Mitchell	G	IND	2.5	0.2-5.0
Janelle Salaun	F	GS	2.4	0.7-4.4
Marine Johannes	G	NY	2.4	0.2-4.9
Bridget Carleton	F	POR	2.4	0.7-4.4
Natisha Hiedeman	G	SEA	2.2	0.4-4.3
Chelsea Gray	G	LV	2.1	0.2-4.2
Jackie Young	G	LV	2.0	0.2-4.1
Arike Ogunbowale	G	DAL	2.0	0.1-4.1
Jovana Nogic	G	PHX	2.0	0.1-4.1
Kayla McBride	G	MIN	1.9	0.0-4.0
Paige Bueckers	G	DAL	1.8	0.2-3.4
Gabby Williams	F	GS	1.7	0.0-3.7
Sydney Taylor	G	CHI	1.7	0.1-3.3
Nia Coffey	F	MIN	1.7	0.2-3.3
Azzi Fudd	G	DAL	1.7	0.1-3.3
Kayla Thornton	F	GS	1.7	0.2-3.3
Maria Conde	F	TOR	1.7	0.2-3.3
Leonie Fiebich	F	NY	1.6	0.1-3.3
Sophie Cunningham	G	IND	1.6	0.1-3.2
Jewell Loyd	G	LV	1.6	0.1-3.2
Kahleah Copper	G	PHX	1.6	0.0-3.2

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts