dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Kawhi Leonard points

Kawhi Leonard: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · LAC · NBA · baseline 27/game (2026, 71 games)
27
Median
17-37
80% range
22-32
50% range
41
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

172737
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
15+94%
20+81%
25+59%
30+34%
35+15%
40+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6380 F points games, our 80% range covered 80.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kawhi Leonard player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts