dfsforge / MLB forecasts

MLB stat forecasts

Sports: NFL · MLB · NBA · WNBA

Point estimates hide the shape. Every forecast below is a full outcome distribution - median, range, and the probability of clearing a line - learned from game logs and validated on a held-out season.

Plain English: instead of one guess per player, we publish the whole spread of likely outcomes - like a weather forecast that says "high of 75, probably between 68 and 82" instead of just "75". Click a stat below to expand it, then click a player for their full forecast page.

Strikeouts (Pitcher)FITTED

A pitcher's strikeouts per start - the highest-leverage pitching stat.

Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 81%.

Player	Pos	Team	Avg/gm	80% range
Jacob Misiorowski	P	MIL	9.2	5.9-12.6
Dylan Cease	P	TOR	8.5	5.2-11.9
Cristopher Sánchez	P	PHI	7.6	4.3-11.0
Chris Sale	P	ATL	7.3	4.0-10.7
Tyler Glasnow	P	LAD	7.0	3.7-10.4
Bryce Miller	P	SEA	6.9	3.6-10.3
Gavin Williams	P	CLE	6.9	3.6-10.3
Cam Schlittler	P	NYY	6.8	3.5-10.2
Jesús Luzardo	P	PHI	6.8	3.5-10.2
Chase Burns	P	CIN	6.8	3.5-10.2
Tarik Skubal	P	DET	6.8	3.5-10.2
Jacob deGrom	P	TEX	6.8	3.5-10.2
Braxton Ashcraft	P	PIT	6.8	3.5-10.2
Nolan McLean	P	NYM	6.6	3.3-10.1
Paul Skenes	P	PIT	6.6	3.3-10.0
Reid Detmers	P	LAA	6.6	3.3-10.0
Nathan Eovaldi	P	TEX	6.5	3.2-9.9
Zack Wheeler	P	PHI	6.5	3.2-9.9
Hunter Brown	P	HOU	6.4	3.1-9.8
Kyle Harrison	P	MIL	6.4	3.1-9.8
Taj Bradley	P	MIN	6.4	3.1-9.8
Logan Gilbert	P	SEA	6.3	3.0-9.7
Joe Ryan	P	MIN	6.3	3.0-9.7
Parker Messick	P	CLE	6.2	2.9-9.6
Max Meyer	P	MIA	6.2	2.9-9.6

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts