dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jusuf Nurkic rebounds

Jusuf Nurkic: reboundsFITTED MODEL

C · UTAH · NBA · baseline 10.1/game (2026, 45 games)
10.3
Median
4.8-15.4
80% range
7.3-12.7
50% range
17.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4.810.315.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
6.0+84%
8.0+70%
10.0+52%
12.0+32%
14.0+16%
16.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jusuf Nurkic player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts