dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Julian Reese rebounds

Julian Reese: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · WSH · NBA · baseline 10.5/game (2026, 13 games)
10.2
Median
6.3-15.0
80% range
8.2-12.7
50% range
16.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

6.310.215.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
6.0+92%
8.0+77%
10.0+53%
12.0+31%
14.0+15%
16.0+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Julian Reese player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts