dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jalen Brunson points

Jalen Brunson: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · NY · NBA · baseline 26/game (2026, 100 games)
25
Median
14-37
80% range
20-31
50% range
40
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

142537
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
15+88%
20+74%
25+52%
30+30%
35+14%
40+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jalen Brunson player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts