dfsforge / NBA forecasts / LeBron James assists

LeBron James: assistsFITTED MODEL

F · LAL · NBA · baseline 7.1/game (2026, 72 games)
7.0
Median
3.8-10.6
80% range
5.1-8.8
50% range
11.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.87.010.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
2.0+99%
4.0+88%
6.0+63%
8.0+33%
10.0+14%
12.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4060 F assists games, our 80% range covered 79.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: LeBron James player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts