dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Nikola Jokic rebounds

Nikola Jokic: reboundsFITTED MODEL

C · DEN · NBA · baseline 12.4/game (2026, 76 games)
12.6
Median
7.1-17.7
80% range
9.6-15.0
50% range
19.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

7.112.617.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
8.0+85%
10.0+72%
12.0+54%
14.0+35%
16.0+18%
18.0+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nikola Jokic player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts