dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jalen Johnson assists

Jalen Johnson: assistsFITTED MODEL

F · ATL · NBA · baseline 7.3/game (2026, 81 games)
7.2
Median
4.0-10.8
80% range
5.3-9.0
50% range
12.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4.07.210.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
2.0+99%
4.0+90%
6.0+66%
8.0+36%
10.0+16%
12.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4060 F assists games, our 80% range covered 79.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jalen Johnson player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts