dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jayson Tatum points

Jayson Tatum: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · BOS · NBA · baseline 22/game (2026, 22 games)
22
Median
13-32
80% range
17-27
50% range
36
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

132232
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
10+94%
15+82%
20+60%
25+35%
30+16%
35+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6380 F points games, our 80% range covered 80.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jayson Tatum player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts