dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jaylen Brown points

Jaylen Brown: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · BOS · NBA · baseline 27/game (2026, 83 games)
27
Median
16-38
80% range
21-33
50% range
42
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

162738
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
15+92%
20+79%
25+60%
30+36%
35+18%
40+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jaylen Brown player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts