dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Kevin Durant points

Kevin Durant: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · HOU · NBA · baseline 25/game (2026, 83 games)
25
Median
16-35
80% range
20-30
50% range
39
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

162535
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
15+91%
20+74%
25+50%
30+26%
35+11%
40+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6380 F points games, our 80% range covered 80.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kevin Durant player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts