dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Jessica Shepard assists

Jessica Shepard: assistsFITTED MODEL

F · DAL · WNBA · baseline 5.0/game (2026, 21 games)
4.6
Median
1.7-8.6
80% range
3.3-6.6
50% range
10.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.74.68.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
2.0+88%
3.0+81%
4.0+62%
5.0+45%
6.0+32%
7.0+21%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 219 F assists games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jessica Shepard player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts