dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Dylan Cease strikeouts (pitcher)

Dylan Cease: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · TOR · MLB · baseline 8.5/game (2026, 15 games)
8.5
Median
5.2-11.9
80% range
6.7-10.3
50% range
12.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

5.28.511.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
4.0+97%
6.0+83%
8.0+58%
10.0+29%
12.0+10%
14.0+2%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Dylan Cease player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts