P · MIN · MLB ·
baseline 6.3/game (2026, 18 games)
6.2
Median
3.0-9.7
80% range
4.4-8.0
50% range
10.6
Ceiling (p95)
Outcome distribution
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.
Chance of reaching
strikeouts (pitcher)
Probability
2.0+
96%
4.0+
80%
6.0+
53%
8.0+
26%
10.0+
8%
12.0+
1%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is
learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the
baseline switches to the weekly line.
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical
game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a
training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app ·
Accuracy receipts