dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Pelle Larsson points

Pelle Larsson: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · MIA · NBA · baseline 10.9/game (2026, 74 games)
10.3
Median
3.1-19.3
80% range
6.3-15.0
50% range
22.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.110.319.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+82%
10.0+52%
15.0+25%
20.0+9%
25.0+2%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Pelle Larsson player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts