dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Andrew Nembhard points

Andrew Nembhard: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · IND · NBA · baseline 17/game (2026, 60 games)
16
Median
7-27
80% range
11-21
50% range
30
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

71627
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5+94%
10+79%
15+56%
20+31%
25+14%
30+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Andrew Nembhard player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts