dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Moses Brown rebounds

Moses Brown: reboundsFITTED MODEL

Name: Moses Brown rebounds outcome distribution
Creator: dfsforge

C · DEN · NBA · baseline 3.7/game (2025, 12 games)

3.1

Median

0.3-7.9

80% range

1.4-5.4

50% range

9.5

Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

rebounds	Probability
2.0+	65%
4.0+	38%
6.0+	21%
8.0+	10%

Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).

Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.

More: Moses Brown player page · all NBA forecasts

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts