dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Chet Holmgren points

Chet Holmgren: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · OKC · NBA · baseline 16/game (2026, 87 games)
16
Median
8-24
80% range
12-21
50% range
27
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

81624
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5+97%
10+84%
15+56%
20+28%
25+8%
30+2%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Chet Holmgren player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts