dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jabari Smith Jr. three-pointers

Jabari Smith Jr.: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

F · HOU · NBA · baseline 2.4/game (2026, 86 games)
2.2
Median
0.3-4.4
80% range
1.2-3.4
50% range
5.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.32.24.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+81%
2.0+56%
3.0+33%
4.0+14%
5.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6019 F three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jabari Smith Jr. player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts