dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jabari Smith Jr. rebounds

Jabari Smith Jr.: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · HOU · NBA · baseline 6.9/game (2026, 86 games)
6.6
Median
2.6-11.3
80% range
4.6-9.0
50% range
12.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.66.611.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+94%
4.0+80%
6.0+58%
8.0+35%
10.0+17%
12.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jabari Smith Jr. player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts