Jake FergusonFITTED MODEL

TE · DAL · NFL

9.8

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

23%

Boom (1.5x)

33%

Bust (0.6x)

10.9

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

receiving yards · receptions · targets

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Rush Yds	Rec Yds	Rec
2025 wk 18	@ NYG	1.5	0	5	1
2025 wk 17	@ WAS	7.6	0	6	1
2025 wk 16	vs LAC	4.9	0	19	3
2025 wk 15	vs MIN	3.6	0	16	2
2025 wk 14	@ DET	10.8	0	58	5
2025 wk 13	vs KC	8.6	0	36	5
2025 wk 12	vs PHI	11.1	1	60	5
2025 wk 11	@ LV	11.6	0	16	4
2025 wk 9	vs ARI	8.0	0	50	5
2025 wk 8	@ DEN	0.0	0	0	0
2025 wk 7	vs WAS	21.9	0	29	7
2025 wk 6	@ CAR	12.3	0	33	3
2025 wk 5	@ NYJ	23.9	0	49	7
2025 wk 4	vs GB	17.0	0	40	7
2025 wk 3	@ CHI	21.2	0	82	13

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts