dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jake Ferguson targets

Jake Ferguson: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · DAL · NFL · baseline 6.0/game (2025, 17 games)
5.6
Median
2.2-10.4
80% range
3.7-7.8
50% range
12.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.25.610.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+93%
4.0+72%
6.0+44%
8.0+23%
10.0+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jake Ferguson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts