dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Maria Conde rebounds

Maria Conde: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · TOR · WNBA · baseline 4.5/game (2026, 19 games)
4.1
Median
1.2-8.4
80% range
2.3-6.1
50% range
9.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.24.18.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+79%
4.0+52%
6.0+26%
8.0+12%
10.0+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 658 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Maria Conde player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts