dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Maria Conde points

Maria Conde: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · TOR · WNBA · baseline 8.4/game (2026, 19 games)
7.6
Median
2.0-16.3
80% range
4.2-11.6
50% range
18.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.07.616.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
2.0+90%
4.0+76%
6.0+64%
8.0+47%
10.0+34%
12.0+23%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 454 F points games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Maria Conde player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts