dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Pauline Astier points

Pauline Astier: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · NY · WNBA · baseline 10.4/game (2026, 22 games)
10.0
Median
2.7-18.2
80% range
5.9-14.3
50% range
21.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.710.018.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+80%
10.0+50%
15.0+22%
20.0+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 709 G points games, our 80% range covered 77.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Pauline Astier player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts