dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Bria Hartley points

Bria Hartley: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · CON · WNBA · baseline 8.9/game (2025, 38 games)
7.9
Median
2.2-16.6
80% range
4.6-12.4
50% range
19.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.27.916.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+73%
10.0+38%
15.0+15%
20.0+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 709 G points games, our 80% range covered 77.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Bria Hartley player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts