dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Bria Hartley assists

Bria Hartley: assistsFITTED MODEL

G · CON · WNBA · baseline 3.1/game (2025, 38 games)
2.8
Median
0.6-5.8
80% range
1.5-4.4
50% range
6.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.62.85.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+83%
2.0+64%
3.0+48%
4.0+30%
5.0+18%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 731 G assists games, our 80% range covered 77.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Bria Hartley player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts