dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Sarah Ashlee Barker points

Sarah Ashlee Barker: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · POR · WNBA · baseline 11.2/game (2026, 20 games)
10.8
Median
3.5-19.0
80% range
6.7-15.1
50% range
21.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.510.819.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+84%
10.0+55%
15.0+26%
20.0+8%
25.0+2%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 709 G points games, our 80% range covered 77.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Sarah Ashlee Barker player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts