dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Olivia Nelson-Ododa points

Olivia Nelson-Ododa: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · CON · WNBA · baseline 8.5/game (2026, 17 games)
8.3
Median
1.5-15.7
80% range
4.4-12.0
50% range
17.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.58.315.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
4.0+77%
6.0+66%
8.0+52%
10.0+36%
12.0+25%
14.0+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 152 C points games, our 80% range covered 81.6% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Olivia Nelson-Ododa player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts