dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / NaLyssa Smith points

NaLyssa Smith: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · LV · WNBA · baseline 10.8/game (2026, 21 games)
10.6
Median
3.4-18.7
80% range
6.2-14.8
50% range
20.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.410.618.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+82%
10.0+54%
15.0+24%
20.0+7%
25.0+1%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 454 F points games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: NaLyssa Smith player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts