dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Napheesa Collier rebounds

Napheesa Collier: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · MIN · WNBA · baseline 7.2/game (2025, 41 games)
6.9
Median
3.1-11.5
80% range
5.0-9.1
50% range
13.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.16.911.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+96%
4.0+84%
6.0+63%
8.0+36%
10.0+18%
12.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 658 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Napheesa Collier player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts