dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Gunnar Helm targets

Gunnar Helm: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · TEN · NFL · baseline 3.4/game (2025, 16 games)
2.9
Median
1.0-6.4
80% range
1.8-4.6
50% range
7.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.02.96.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+90%
2.0+72%
3.0+49%
4.0+32%
5.0+21%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Gunnar Helm player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts