dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Gunnar Helm receiving yards

Gunnar Helm: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

TE · TEN · NFL · baseline 22/game (2025, 16 games)
18
Median
-4-56
80% range
4-36
50% range
68
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

-41856
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
10+62%
20+46%
30+32%
40+21%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 887 TE receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 83.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Gunnar Helm player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts