dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Brian Thomas receptions

Brian Thomas: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · JAX · NFL · baseline 3.4/game (2025, 14 games)
3.1
Median
0.8-6.4
80% range
1.9-4.8
50% range
7.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.83.16.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+88%
2.0+72%
3.0+52%
4.0+35%
5.0+23%
6.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Brian Thomas player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts