dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jared Goff passing yards

Jared Goff: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · DET · NFL · baseline 268/game (2025, 17 games)
266
Median
170-368
80% range
223-323
50% range
391
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

170266368
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
150+94%
200+83%
250+61%
300+35%
350+15%
400+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jared Goff player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts