dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Aidan O'Connell completions

Aidan O'Connell: completionsFITTED MODEL

QB · LV · NFL · baseline 17/game (2024, 9 games)
18
Median
8-25
80% range
14-22
50% range
27
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

81825
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

completionsProbability
5+93%
10+87%
15+69%
20+37%
25+9%
30+1%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 562 QB completions games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Aidan O'Connell player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts