dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Trevor Lawrence passing yards

Trevor Lawrence: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · JAX · NFL · baseline 236/game (2025, 17 games)
233
Median
141-335
80% range
182-286
50% range
370
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

141233335
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
100+96%
150+87%
200+68%
250+43%
300+19%
350+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Trevor Lawrence player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts