dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Josh Reynolds receptions

Josh Reynolds: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · FA · NFL · baseline 2.2/game (2025, 5 games)
1.9
Median
0.1-4.8
80% range
0.8-3.3
50% range
5.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.11.94.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+70%
2.0+47%
3.0+29%
4.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Josh Reynolds player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts