dfsforge / NFL forecasts / T.J. Hockenson receptions

T.J. Hockenson: receptionsFITTED MODEL

TE · MIN · NFL · baseline 3.4/game (2025, 15 games)
3.1
Median
0.9-6.6
80% range
1.8-4.5
50% range
7.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.93.16.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+89%
2.0+71%
3.0+52%
4.0+32%
5.0+19%
6.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 722 TE receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: T.J. Hockenson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts