dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Josh Jacobs carries

Josh Jacobs: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · GB · NFL · baseline 16/game (2025, 15 games)
15
Median
8-24
80% range
11-20
50% range
26
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

81524
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
5+98%
10+81%
15+52%
20+24%
25+8%
30+1%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Josh Jacobs player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts