dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jaxon Smith-Njigba receptions

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · SEA · NFL · baseline 7.0/game (2025, 17 games)
6.8
Median
3.6-10.8
80% range
5.1-8.7
50% range
12.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.66.810.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
2.0+97%
4.0+87%
6.0+62%
8.0+33%
10.0+14%
12.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jaxon Smith-Njigba player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts