dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving yards

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

WR · SEA · NFL · baseline 105/game (2025, 17 games)
100
Median
54-161
80% range
73-133
50% range
181
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

54100161
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
50+93%
75+73%
100+50%
125+31%
150+15%
175+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1868 WR receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 81.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jaxon Smith-Njigba player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts