dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Toby Okani rebounds

Toby Okani: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · MEM · NBA · baseline 3.5/game (2026, 6 games)
3.2
Median
0.9-6.9
80% range
1.7-4.8
50% range
8.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.93.26.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
1.0+88%
2.0+71%
3.0+52%
4.0+38%
5.0+23%
6.0+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Toby Okani player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts