dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Lucas Williamson points

Lucas Williamson: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · MEM · NBA · baseline 10.4/game (2026, 7 games)
9.8
Median
2.6-18.8
80% range
5.7-14.5
50% range
21.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.69.818.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+79%
10.0+48%
15.0+23%
20.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Lucas Williamson player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts