dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Payton Sandfort three-pointers

Payton Sandfort: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

F · OKC · NBA · baseline 1.8/game (2026, 4 games)
1.3
Median
0.1-4.0
80% range
0.7-2.6
50% range
4.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.11.34.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+70%
2.0+40%
3.0+21%
4.0+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6019 F three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Payton Sandfort player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts