dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Bez Mbeng assists

Bez Mbeng: assistsFITTED MODEL

G · UTAH · NBA · baseline 4.1/game (2026, 15 games)
3.8
Median
1.2-7.3
80% range
2.3-5.6
50% range
8.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.23.87.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+92%
2.0+80%
3.0+65%
4.0+47%
5.0+32%
6.0+20%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9094 G assists games, our 80% range covered 80.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Bez Mbeng player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts